U.S. solar buyers still paying above list as supply crunch persists

U.S. solar buyers paid 3.55% above median listing prices in Q1 2026, even as the premium narrowed sharply from the prior quarter, according to A1 SolarStore’s latest index. The data suggests the market has cooled from deadline-driven panic, but tariff-related supply shortages and rising input costs are still keeping prices elevated.

Why it matters: - U.S. solar buyers are still paying above list in most markets, showing that pricing pressure has not fully eased. - The gap matters for installers, contractors and homeowners because tariff-compliant inventory is still tight heading into peak installation season. - Rising input costs could add more upward pressure in Q2 2026.

What happened: - U.S. solar buyers paid 3.55% above median listing prices in Q1 2026, down from 13.42% in Q4 2025. - Median listing prices rose 2.1% quarter over quarter to $0.347 per watt. - Six of eight active U.S. regions still paid above median listing prices. - West South Central buyers paid 98% above the local median. - South Atlantic buyers paid 63% above the local median. - Mountain buyers paid 52% above the local median. - New England and Pacific were the two regions that paid below the median listing price.

The details: - A1 SolarStore said the Q4 2025 spike was driven by import duties that closed major low-cost supply routes and by the Dec. 31 expiration of the federal residential solar tax credit. - The company said both deadlines passed, but the underlying supply constraint remained. - The composite index closed at 83, up five points from Q4 2025. - Inventory doubled quarter over quarter, but it still sat at 42% of the Q1 2025 peak. - All three key raw material inputs — silver, aluminum and non-Chinese polysilicon — are rising heading into peak installation season. - The Q1 2026 A1 Solar Index is built on real buyer transactions, not surveys or forecasts. - The index tracks price stability at 40%, inventory levels at 30% and demand change at 30%. - The full report covers brand performance across 87 manufacturers, regional maps and state incentive breakdowns.

Between the lines: - The smaller premium suggests the market is normalizing after a rush period, but the above-list pricing across most regions points to continued structural tightness. - The regional split shows buyer leverage still exists in markets with more competitive supply. - The data implies the market is adjusting to a new baseline rather than returning to pre-shock pricing.

What's next: - Price pressure could increase in Q2 2026 if raw material costs keep rising. - The market will likely remain constrained until inventory rebuilds closer to historical norms. - A1 SolarStore says the broader report includes more detail on manufacturers, regional supply and state incentives.

The bottom line: - The panic buying has eased, but solar buyers are still paying for a market shaped by tariffs, low inventory and rising input costs.